基于非线性分析方法的多种代用资料的相似性研究  

Analysis of similarity of several proxy series based on nonlinear analysis method

作　　者：龚志强[1,2] 封国林[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院 [2]国家气候中心,中国气象局气候研究开放实验室 [3]中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室,北京100029

出　　处：《物理学报》2007年第6期3619-3629,共11页Acta Physica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(批准号:2006CB400503);国家自然科学基金(批准号:90411008;40675044)资助的课题~~

摘　　要：代用资料的重建与分析是古气候研究领域的一个重要课题,应用小波变换和功率谱研究了都兰树轮等8种温度代用资料的主要周期,并以此为基础进行滤波,结合动力学相关因子指数和相关系数从代用资料的动力学结构特征和外部特征两个角度研究其在不同尺度上的相似性.研究结果表明,准100a尺度是这些代用资料的共同周期,并且8种温度代用资料的动力学结构特征和外部特征在准100a及以上的尺度层次上是相似的,即外部特征和动力学结构特征两个方面均符合可比性条件.同时,随着尺度的降低,动力学结构特征和外部特征的可比性均降低.60—70a尺度及其以下的尺度,各分量之间的动力学结构特征失去了可比性;在小于30a的尺度上,它们的外部特征也不再具有可比性.Reconstruction and analysis of proxy series is an important program of climate research. Using methods of wavelet transformation and power spectrum, the main periods of Dulan tree ring and other 7 temperature proxy series are analyzed in this paper. Through filtering, the 8 original series were divided into many different scale components, the similarities in dynamics and external features of components on each scale are studied based on the dynamical correlation factor exponent and correlation coefficient. Research results show that quasi 100 a scale might be the common period of these proxy series, meanwhile, both dynamics and external features of these proxy series are similar on the quasi 100 a and even higher scales. This means that the quasi 100 a and even higher scale components meet with comparable conditions in these aspects. More attention must be paid to this scale when analyzing proxy series. We also found that the similarities in dynamics and external features of these proxy series are reduced as the scale of the components decreaces ; On quasi 60-70 a scale, the component similarities in dynamics features disappear. On quasi 30 a and even lower scale the similarities of external features also disappear.

关 键 词：代用资料 动力学自相关因子指数 相似性 尺度 

分 类 号：P532[天文地球—古生物学与地层学]