多维联合概率理论对三峡工程设计洪水的计算  

Calculation of Design Flood for the Three Gorges Project

作　　者：逯义军[1] 刘德辅[1] 谢波涛[1] 姜云鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学海洋防灾研究所,山东青岛266003

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》2007年第3期497-502,496,共7页Periodical of Ocean University of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50379051)资助

摘　　要：首次将多维联合概率理论应用到三峡大坝设计洪水的风险分析,并用随机模拟方法(ISPUD)对四维联合概率分布进行了求解,得出在长江上游干流及主要支流来水量出现的不同组合和最不利组合情况下,相应三峡大坝不同联合重现期的设计洪水。可用于三峡工程的风险分析及防洪调度。Muhivariable joint probability theory is applied to calculate design floods for the Three Gorges dam for the first time. And the stochastic simulation technique is used to calculate the four-variable joint probability distribution. Different combinations and the most adverse combination of the major tributaries＇ floods are obtained and corresponding design flood values for different joint return periods are calculated. The results can be used in risk analysis and flood control for this project.

关 键 词：多维联合概率 设计洪水 随机模拟方法 

分 类 号：TV12[水利工程—水文学及水资源]