海底管道系统失效可能性评价方法研究  

Study on evaluating method for failure probability of subsea oil and gas pipelines

作　　者：谢云杰[1] 姚安林[1] 钱浩[2] 汤淼[3] 李果[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学 [2]西南油气田分公司输气管理处 [3]西南油气田分公司重庆气矿

出　　处：《中国海上油气（工程）》2007年第2期134-138,共5页China Offshore Oil and Gas

摘　　要：基于文献[1]所建立的海底管道系统失效故障树,探讨了将主观判断法与模糊数学处理方法相结合的海底管道系统失效可能性评价方法;利用该方法确定了失效故障树分析中各基本事件的发生概率,计算了顶事件的发生概率及各基本事件的概率重要度和临界重要度,并对影响海底管道系统安全可靠性的薄弱环节及影响因素进行了分析。Based on the fault tree for the subsea oil and gas pipeline established in reference [-1 ], this paper discusses the evaluating method for failure probability of subsea oil and gas pipelines, which integrated the subjective estimation with the fuzzy mathematics. By the evaluating method, the probability,the probability importance and the criticality importance of the basic events are determined, the probability of the top events is calculated,and the weak sections and their influencing factors to the safety and reliability of a subsea oil and gas pipeline system are analyzed.

关 键 词：海底管道系统 失效可能性 评价方法 

分 类 号：TE988.2[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]