水资源需求驱动因素分析  

Analysis of driving factors for water demand

作　　者：袁宝招[1] 陆桂华[1] 李原园[2] 郦建强[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水资源环境学院,江苏南京210098 [2]水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京100045

出　　处：《水科学进展》2007年第3期404-409,共6页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：全国水资源综合规划~~

摘　　要：根据我国1980-2000年国民经济实际用水状况,简要分析了水资源需求的驱动因素,建立了水资源需求驱动因素综合分析模型,并根据模型进行了实例计算和分析。结果表明:(1)1980-2000年全国总用水增加了1 220亿m3,其中工业和生活用水增长是国民经济用水增长的直接原因;(2)全国而言,排在前四位的正向驱动因素分别是工业增加值、农田灌溉面积、人口以及林牧渔需(补)水面积。负向驱动因素分别是农田灌溉定额的下降,其次是工业用水定额的下降;(3)对生活用水而言,北方省份人口增长对生活需水增长的贡献较突出,南方省份则是生活用水定额的提高对生活需水增长的贡献较突出;(4)对工业用水而言,工业规模的扩大是驱动工业需水增长的主要因素;北方省份工业用水定额下降对抑制工业需水增长的贡献率明显;(5)农田灌溉面积变化对农田灌溉需水变化影响较大。分析结果为把握我国未来水资源需求变化态势,合理配置水资源提供依据。According to the data of water consumption from 1980 to 2000 in China, this paper analyze simply the driving factots for water demand, and construct a model for the case study on the contribution ratio of every driving factor changing water demand. The main conclusions involve ： （ 1 ） The rise of industrial and residential water consumption is the direct cause of water consumption increase; （2） The top fourth area, population, and area of forest, herd and positive driving factors are the increase of industrial production value, irrigation fishing . The decrease of farm irrigation quota plays a first important role in constraining water demand while the decrease of industrial water consumption quota plays the second one;（3）Although population rise is the main contributor of residential water demand increase in North China, the increase of the average residential water consumption quota is more important in South China; （4）Industrial scale enlargement is the main driving factor for the industri- al water demand, and the decline of water consumption of tmit value is quite serious in North China; And （5）variation of the farm irrigation area has great influence on the farm water demand.

关 键 词：水资源需求 驱动因素 分析模型 

分 类 号：TV21[水利工程—水文学及水资源]