中国经济周期波动态势分析  

An Analysis of the Business Cycle in China

作　　者：彭建平[1] 康娜[1] 徐爱好[2] 

机构地区：[1]石家庄经济学院数理学院,河北石家庄050031 [2]辽宁大学经济学院,辽宁沈阳110036

出　　处：《石家庄经济学院学报》2007年第3期33-36,共4页Journal of Shijiazhuang University of Economics

摘　　要：利用方差分析滤波法对中国经济周期的态势和变化特征进行了归纳分析。我国经济共经历了10个周期,经济周期波动发生的频率较高,但它既不同于中期,也不同于短期,而是处于两者之间。同时第10个周期一直在延续。Economic fluctuation is an important part in macroeconomics. In this paper, we analyze the actual condition and development tendency of business cycle in China by taking advantage of filter method of variance analysis. It is concluded that China has gone through 10 business cycles and has high fluctuation frequency. But the average period of each cycle is shorter than Juglar cycle and longer than Kitchin cycle. In present, we are in the tenth period, which has a developing tendency.

关 键 词：经济周期 方差分析滤波法 

分 类 号：F224.9[经济管理—国民经济]