乌鲁木齐市强降水雷达回波特征分析及预报研究  

Analysis and Forecast Study on Feature of Radar Echo of Severe Precipitation in Urumqi

作　　者：刘惠云 李进忠[2] 蒋军 叶勇[2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆气象台,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]乌鲁木齐市气象局,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2007年第2期16-18,22,共4页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：中国沙漠气象科学研究基金(Sqi2004010)资助

摘　　要：利用乌鲁木齐市2004年和2005年的夏半年(5月至9月)新一代雷达降水模式的产品资料及相应的天气图、实时降水量等资料,对乌鲁木齐市强降水个例的降水时雷达回波强度和范围、不同类型性质降水的移速及移向进行了分析研究。得出:当强降水过程(1h内)组合反射率因子强度都在35dBz以上,并出现强度40dBz以上、范围在20km×25km以上且能移过当地时就会出现1h降水量>6mm以上的强降水,概率达75%。当出现强度40dBz以上、范围在20km×25km以上并有成块的>50dBz以上强度的回波且能移过本地时,则会出现雨强很大的短时强阵性降水;连续性强降水的雷达回波移速平均为0.5km/min,阵性强降水雷达回波移速为1km/min;利用雷达产品中速度方位显示风廓线(VWP)的4～5km高度的风向做雷达回波移动方向的临近预报。所得结果应用价值大,对乌鲁木齐市短时临近强降水预报具有一定的指导性,在短时临近强降水预报的服务工作中将会产生很大的社会效益和经济效益。By using the data of new generation radar precipitation model production and relevant weather maps, real-time precipitation data during May and September in 2004,2005 , this paper analyzed and studied the intensity and range of radar echo , the velocity and direction of movement about different kinds severe precipitation on single cases of severe precipitation in Urumqi . We drew a conclusion that the probability of a severe precipitation with more than 6mm per hour will reach 75% when the intensity of compounding reflectivity factor was above 35dBZ during the whole precipitation process （within one hour） , moreover the intensity is above 40dBZ, its covering range larger than 20km×25km appeared and moved across the local area . When the intensity is above 40dBZ, the range larger than 20km×25km and a group of strong radar echo with intensity above 50dBz passing the local area, there will be severe shower with heavy intensity; the movement velocity of continuous severe precipitation radar echo is 0.5km per minute on average, or the movement velocity of shower severe precipitation radar echo is lkm per minute on average; 4-5km height wind directions of VWP, which is a radar product, are used to do nowcasting about movement velocity of radar echo. The conclusion has great value in practice and is a guide in short-time nowcasting of severe precipitation in Urumqi, and it will also create significant social and economical profits in short-time nowcasting of severe precipitation service.

关 键 词：强降水 雷达回波 强度 移速 移向 乌鲁木齐市 

分 类 号：P415.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]