基于AHP法的赤潮灾害风险评估指标权重研究  

Research on Index Weighting of Risk Assessment of Harmful Algal Bloom Hazard Based on AHP

作　　者：文世勇[1] 赵冬至[1] 陈艳拢[1] 杨帆[1] 马小峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋环境监测中心

出　　处：《灾害学》2007年第2期9-14,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家海洋局908专项资助项目

摘　　要：赤潮灾害风险评估是赤潮灾害减灾防灾的重要内容之一。评估指标体系对赤潮灾害风险评估具有十分重要的意义,而权重的确定是建立指标体系的主要内容,是提高赤潮灾害风险评估结果可信度的关键。运用德尔斐(Delph i)法、层次分析法(AHP)定量确定了赤潮灾害风险评估中赤潮灾害危险度、承灾体易损度的各个层次、各个指标的权重。结果表明,在赤潮灾害危险度评估的所有指标中,光照强度的权重为0.094 77,氮磷比值、硝氮、铵氮和磷均占0.044 78等;在承灾体易损度评估的所有指标中,不同类型赤潮对承灾体因子易损度是不一样的,总体趋势是无毒赤潮对承灾体易损度的影响最小,有害赤潮的影响居中,有毒赤潮的影响最大。The risk assessment of the harmful algal bloom （HAB） disaster is one of the important contents of reducing and preventing HAB disaster. But the determination of index weighting is an important content for establishing the indexes system which is of great significance to risk assessment of HAB disaster. It is a key to enhance the availability level of risk assessment results of HAB disaster. This paper used Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process method （AHP） to compute the weight of all of the indexes. The research indicates that in all indexes, the weight of light illumination is 0. 09477 and nitrogen phosphorus ratio, niter nitrogen, ammonium nitrogen and phosphorus are 0. 04478. In vulnerability assessment of disaster bearing body, the different kinds of HAB make vulnerability different. The general trend is that the influence of non-toxicity HAB to vulnerability of disaster bearing body is the least, the influence of nocuousness HAB is the midst and that of the venomous HAB is the most.

关 键 词：AHP 赤潮灾害 风险评估 指标体系 权重 

分 类 号：X55[环境科学与工程—环境工程]