基于优势隐含周期分析的气象灾害预报  

Forecast of Meteorological Disaster Based on Analysis of Dominant Hidden Cycle

作　　者：冯利华[1] Hong William 

机构地区：[1]浙江师范大学地理系,浙江金华321004 [2]Department of Mathematics Clayton College & State University

出　　处：《灾害学》2007年第2期15-17,共3页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：浙江省科技计划重点项目(2006C23066);义乌市科技攻关项目(2006-G3-20)

摘　　要：建立了优势因子和优势隐含周期的概念,并提出了多因子逐步回归周期分析的新方法。该方法既能增长预报期,又能充分利用物理因子的重要信息,同时在计算过程中还能挑选出起显著作用的优势因子和优势隐含周期,对预报气象要素的变化趋势效果较好,有一定的实用价值,是气象灾害预报的一条比较有效的途径。A concept of the dominant factor and dominant hidden cycle is given and a new method of analysis of stepwise regression cycle of multi-factor is put forward. The method can both lengthen predictive period and make full use of the major formation of physical factors. At the same time, it can pick out the dominant factor and dominant hidden cycle of the notable effect in calculating process, which has relatively results for forecasting the change tendency of meteorological element. Therefore, as a relatively efficient way for forecasting meteorological disaster, it has some practical value.

关 键 词：气象要素 逐步回归 优势因子 优势隐含周期 气象灾害预报 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]