复杂产品创新风险综合评估模型及其应用研究  

Comprehensive Risk Assessment Model for Complicated Product Innovation and Its Application

作　　者：段秉乾[1] 王安宇[1] 司春林[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《科技导报》2007年第11期58-62,共5页Science & Technology Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70472021);教育部人文社会科学重点研究项目(02JAZ790003)

摘　　要：复杂产品创新是实现“建设创新型国家”战略的重要组成部分,对于提高国家竞争力具有决定性作用。复杂产品创新具有高风险性,需要对其进行全面的风险评估,然而现有评估方法均存在某些不足。本文分析了复杂产品创新的关键风险因素,提出了模糊层次分析法风险综合评估模型。该模型突破了传统方法的限制,融合了多种评估方法,符合当代风险评估研究的发展趋势。Complicated product innovation is an important part of the strategy in building a country into one of innovative type and plays a decisive role in enhancing the national competitive power. Due to the high risk nature, the innovation risk of complicated products must be assessed comprehensively. But most existing methods were found not very satisfactory in that respect. In this paper, key risk factors of complicated product innovation are analyzed and a comprehensive risk assessment model based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy AHP) is put forward. The model is well in accord with the trend of the current innovation risk assessment development, and is an improvement of traditional risk assessment methods in integrating various assessment methods.

关 键 词：复杂产品 模糊层次分析法 风险评估 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]