用捕获-再捕获方法对江城县疟疾漏报程度的评价  

Evaluation on malaria underreporting degree by capture-recapture method in Jiangcheng County

作　　者：董莹[1] 李春林 王兴荣[3] 郭晓芳[1] 李春富[1] 李丽[1] 刘慧[1] 李菊升[1] 吕时生[3] 

机构地区：[1]云南省寄生虫病防治所,云南思茅665000 [2]江城县疾病预防控制中心 [3]思茅市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《中国病原生物学杂志》2007年第3期207-209,共3页Journal of Pathogen Biology

基　　金：全球抗艾滋病;结核病和疟疾基金中国高传播区疟疾控制项目(No.CHN-102-G02-M-00)

摘　　要：目的了解江城县的疟疾发病实际和漏报程度。方法采用回顾性调查方法,统计江城县2002年疟疾报告疫情、血检情况、疟疾治疗及村民疟史等,以捕获-再捕获方法估计疟疾实际发病和漏报率。结果2002年,江城县疟疾发病率为0.51‰,被调查3个乡的疟疾发病率分别为1.46‰、0.29‰和0,所调查的27个自然村全年共报告30例疟疾。根据发热病人血检、医生疟疾治疗处方及疟史数估算江城县的疟疾疫情漏报率分别是58.33%、16.67%和84.13%,估计疟疾病例数分别为130、65和340例。结论江城县的疟疾漏报程度比较严重。Objective To understand malaria actual incidence and underreported degree of Jiangcheng county. Methods Retrospective investigation was carried out to gather the number of malaria cases, numbers of blood examination, treatment prescriptions and villagers＇ malaria history in 2002. The malaria incidence and underreporting report were evaluated by capture-recapture method. Results The malaria morbidity was 0.51‰ in Jiangcheng in 2002. The malaria morbidities of three townships investigated were 1.46‰, 0.29‰ and 0, respectively. 30 malaria patients were reported in 27 natural villages. By checking blood examination reports, treatment prescriptions and finding out villagers with malaria history, the rates of underreporting report were estimated to be 58.33%, 16.67% and 84.13% respectively, and the malaria cases estimated were 130, 65 and 340. Conclusion The degree of malaria underreporting is serious in Jiangcheng County.

关 键 词：捕获-再捕获方法 疟疾 漏报 评价 

分 类 号：R382.31[医药卫生—医学寄生虫学]