乌鲁木齐市大气环境质量库兹涅茨曲线分析  

Analysis on the Kuzenets Curve Characteristics of Air Environment in Urumqi City

作　　者：王庆[1] 何秉宇[1] 易莉[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2007年第3期328-332,共5页Arid Zone Research

摘　　要：通过把乌鲁木齐市3种大气污染物（SO2,NOX,TSP）排放浓度与人均GDP值（近25年的数据）进行1～5阶的线性回归模拟,结果显示：3阶线性回归的模拟效果最好,故认为乌鲁木齐市大气环境污染物排放浓度与人均GDP增长之间的回归模型,符合环境库兹涅茨三次回归拟合曲线特征.In this paper, the relationship between the typical air pollution indexes and the per capita GDP in Urumqi City is analyzed based on the data of economic growth and the air environment quality in Urumqi City during the period of 1981 - 2004 by developing the regression model between the concentrations of main air pollutants and the per capita GDP. The linear regressions from first order to fifth order between the 3 main air pollutants （SO2, NOx, TSP） and the per capita GDP in Urumqi in recent 25 years are carried out. The results show that the simulated result of third-order regression is the best, so it is considered that the regression model between the concentrations of main air pollutants and the per capita GDP in Urumqi City fits the Kuznets thirdlinear regression fitting curve characteristics. The fitting curve reveals that the concentration of SO2 in air over Urumqi has been continuously increased in recent 25 years, that of NOx fluctuate violently but was significantly increased during the period of 2002 - 2004, and that of TSP is significantly decreased. It is predicted that the air pollution in Urumqi will become more serious with the economic development, so it is urgent to take some measures for controlling air pollution in Urumqi.

关 键 词：大气环境 环境质量 库兹涅茨曲线 人均GDP 乌鲁木齐 

分 类 号：X823[环境科学与工程—环境工程]