基于Markov链的供应链产品市场预测分析  

The Product Market Forecast Analysis of Supply Chain Based on Markov Chain

作　　者：罗建强[1] 韩玉启[1] 李娜[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210094 [2]山东农业大学经济管理学院,山东泰安271018

出　　处：《工业工程与管理》2007年第3期13-15,20,共4页Industrial Engineering and Management

摘　　要：供应链的组建类型取决于市场需求的变化趋势,在对Markov链的基本思想进行分析的基础上,利用其平稳性和无后效性的基本特征,构建了基于Markov链的市场随机需求预测模型,提出了模型的相关步骤,并指出构建转移矩阵时应注意的问题。实例证明基于Markov链的产品市场预测模型能有效地预测产品未来市场变化趋势。The creation type of supply chain depends on market the changing tendency of market demand. Analyzing the basic idea of Markov chain, the paper builds a statistical forecas- ting model for market random demand with the basic characteristic of no aftereffect and stability, puts forward the interrelated processes of model, and specifies the issue noticed when building a transfer matrix. Example proves that the forecasting model based on Markov chain can effectively predict the future changing tendency in product market.

关 键 词：马尔科夫链 转移概率 产品市场预测 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]