湖州市耕地资源变化与经济发展关系分析  

Correlation analysis of cultivated land change and economic development in Huzhou City

作　　者：李兆富[1] 杨桂山[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学资源与环境科学学院,南京210095 [2]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,南京210008

出　　处：《中国生态农业学报》2007年第3期146-149,共4页Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40371111和40401056)资助

摘　　要：采用湖州市及所辖县市区50年统计数据，分析了湖州市耕地资源变化过程及区域差异，并定量分析了湖州市耕地资源变化与经济发展的关系，对不同经济发展水平耕地占用量进行了估算。结果表明：湖州市耕地面积经历了先增长后递减的变化过程，其中有3次明显的耕地流失高峰，人均耕地面积则呈持续递减趋势；耕地资源面积随着人均GDP的增加呈指数递减趋势，用拟合的指数方程能较好地预测不同人均GDP水平下的耕地面积；在人均GDP分别为500～1000元、1000～5000元、5000～10000元、10000～20000元、20000～30000元阶段，湖州市GDP每增加100亿元，所占用的耕地面积分别为191．41km^2、81．18km^2、12．24km^2、0．77km2、0．01km^2，表明耕地面积占用随经济发展水平提高而逐渐减少，经济发展模式由粗放型向集约型逐渐转变。Baaed on the 50-year statistical data（ 1949 ～ 1998 ） on Huzhou City, the change processes and the regional differences of cultivated lands were analyzed and the relationship between cultivated land change and economic development quantified. Lost cultivated lands to different economic developments were estimated. The results show an initial increase in cultivated land area in Huzhou followed by a steady decline with economic development, leading to three loss peaks in cultivated lands. Per capita cultivated area gradually decreases from 1949 to 1998. The cultivated areas show an exponential decreasing trend with increasing per capita GDP. The exponential function was then used to estimate cultivated land areas under different GDP levels. The estimated cultivated areas are 191.41km^2, 81.18km^2, 12.24km^2, 0.77km^2, and0.01 km^2 for 10 billion RMB GDP increase at per capita GDPs of 500 ～ 1000yuan, 1000 ～ 5000yuan, 5000 10000yuan, 10000 ～ 20000yuan and 20000 ～ 30000yuan RMB, respectively. It is shown that cultivated land areas are steadily declining and the economic development model is shifting from extensive to intensive with economic development.

关 键 词：湖州市 耕地资源 经济发展水平 人均国内生产总值 流失高峰 

分 类 号：S932[农业科学—渔业资源]