基于分布式水文模型的长江上游水资源时空变异性分析  

Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Variability of Water Resources in Upstream of Yangtze River Using Distributed Hydrological Model

作　　者：许继军[1] 杨大文[1] 刘志雨[2] 雷志栋[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学水利系水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室(筹) [2]水利部水文局,北京100053

出　　处：《水文》2007年第3期10-15,28,共7页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：清华大学"百名人才引进计划"基金;Japan Science and Technology Agency(JST) CREST Project

摘　　要：本文首先分析了长江流域内154个气象站降水量和26个干支流水文站流量在1950～2000年期间的变化趋势。为定量分析长江上游地区降水量时空变化对水资源量的影响,构建了基于物理机理的分布式水文模型,模拟再现了天然河道条件下的水文过程。有别于传统的河道径流性水资源评价方法,本文尝试用径流深的空间变化来探讨水资源分布及演变态势。并以渠江罗渡溪水文站为个案,剖析了90年代秋季流量大幅减少的主要缘由。结果表明:受降水在时空分布上存在变异的影响,长江上游局部地区夏季径流深比率呈增加趋势,而秋季则相反;导致嘉陵江渠江水系秋季流量减少的主要原因是降雨,其次才是人为因素。For better management of water resources and flood resourcifcation in the Yangtze River Basin, water resources assessment is most important. Firstly, the spatial-temporal variability of precipitation and runoff during the last half century in the Yangtze River Basin was analyzed in the present study, using precipitation data from 154 meteorological stations together with discharge data from 26 hydrological stations. The TFPW-MK statistical test was applied to assess the significance of trends. Then, a distributed hydrological model was developed to simulate the hydrology process in the upstream of the Yangtze River Basin. The spatial distribution and temporal variety of runoff in the upstream were discussed in this paper. The results showed that, in the east of Sichuan and Three Gorges, the ratio of seasonal runoff/annual runoff has a significant increase in summer, but reduce in autumn.

关 键 词：长江上游 分布式水文模型 径流模拟 水资源评价 河道流量 径流深分布 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]