基于改进模糊层次分析法的火电厂选址综合评价方法研究  

Synthetic Evaluation Method of Site Selection for Thermal Power Plants Based on Improved Fuzzy-AHP

作　　者：郭新志[1] 乞建勋[1] 李星梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电力管理与优化决策研究所,北京102206

出　　处：《现代电力》2007年第3期67-71,共5页Modern Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(80579101);教育部博士点基金资助项目(20050079008)

摘　　要：电厂选址是电力规划阶段的基本任务,其成败关乎电力系统的整体布局和长远发展以及社会、经济各个方面。从多个备选方案中选择最优方案时,必须同时考虑两类指标:功能性指标与经济性指标。前者是从技术和社会角度对各备选厂址进行评判,难以量化;后者则可以用具体的货币价值进行度量。结合层次分析法和模糊综合评判法建立量化模型,利用德尔菲专家法得到的经验数据对火电厂址选择方案中的功能性指标进行综合评价,并利用理想系数法将得到的功能性指标与经济性指标作均衡处理,最终确定最优方案。该综合评价方法分别从定性和定量的角度,考虑了各方案中社会因素、技术因素和经济因素,使所得方案更加客观、科学,并满足可持续发展的需要。实例计算结果证明了该改进型方法的正确性和合理性。As a fundmental task of the power programming, site selection of thermal power plants effect on the holistic layout and long-term development of the power system and several aspects of the society and economy. While selecting the optimal solution, the functional index and economic index are considered. The former is used to judge the technical and social aspects and the latter is to pass judgement on the economic orientation of the standby projects. A quantitative Fuzzy-AHP model is established. Experiential data from elevant experts is used to analyze the functional index of site selecting project. The Ideal Coefficient Method is used to balnce the functional and economic indexes to obtain the optimum project. An example is demonstrated. The result of practical example verifies the validity of this improved method.

关 键 词：模糊层次分析法 火电厂 选址 评价矩阵 理想系数法 

分 类 号：TK282[动力工程及工程热物理—动力机械及工程]