电站设备短期维修风险决策模型研究  

Research on short-term maintenance risk decision model of power plant equipment

作　　者：董玉亮[1] 马履翱[2] 顾煜炯[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学能源与动力工程学院,北京102206 [2]国网北京电力建设研究院,北京100055

出　　处：《华北电力大学学报（自然科学版）》2007年第3期45-49,共5页Journal of North China Electric Power University：Natural Science Edition

摘　　要：针对当前电站单纯根据设备运行时间或设备运行状态进行维修决策,而不能实现整个维修单元维修优化的问题,给出了设备短期维修风险决策框架,并建立了风险决策模型。该模型充分利用了设备技术状态、定期维修间隔、大小修维修约束、各种运行和维修方式下设备维修/故障费用等信息,利用决策树算法进行风险决策,最终得到最优维修方案。应用于给水泵组的维修风险决策,利用维修单元内各设备的状态评价结果、维修约束和维修费用,确定了当前以费用最小为目标的最优维修方案。实例计算表明该模型可行有效,其结果可为电站设备进行有效的维修决策提供有力依据。Aiming at the problem that power stations make maintenance decision just according to the operation time and operation condition and the maintenance optimization of the whole maintenance unit can＇t be realized, a frame of short - term maintenance risk decision is put forward, and the risk decision model is built. In the model, equipment technical health, maintenance interval, overhaul and minimal maintenance constrains, and the maintenance/failure cost of equipment in all operation and maintenance modes are used. The best maintenance schedule is gained by using decision tree algorithm. It is applied to make maintenance risk decision of water-feed pump set, by using maintenance constrains, maintenance costs and the results of equipment condition evaluation, a best maintenanee schedule corresponding to the object of lowest maintennnee/failure cost is determined. The computation example shows that the model is feasible and effective, and can be used as a powerful support next in making effective maintenance decision of power station equipment.

关 键 词：电站设备 维修决策 风险分析 决策树算法 

分 类 号：TB943[一般工业技术—计量学]