土地投入对中国二三产业发展贡献的定量研究  

Study on Contribution Rate of Land to the Secondary & Service Industry Growth

作　　者：毛振强[1] 左玉强[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国土地勘测规划院,北京100035

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2007年第3期59-63,共5页China Land Science

基　　金：国家科技部"十五"攻关课题"小城镇地方资源合理利用关键技术研究及设备开发"(2003BA808A18-1)

摘　　要：研究目的:探索土地要素投入对中国二三产业发展影响的定量评估方法。研究方法:在Cobb-Dauglas生产函数方程中加入土地要素,就土地要素投入对中国二三产业发展的贡献进行定量研究。研究结果:以1996—2003年二三产业总产值与二三产业固定资产投资、二三产业从业人数和建设用地数量等之间存在显著的正相关关系,(F=249.511>(F 0.01)(4,3),R=0.998>R(0.01)(4,3))。上述三个要素的回归系数分别为0.127、0.995和1.038,说明土地投入每增加1%,二三产业总产值增长1.038%,是土地、资金和劳动力三要素中对二三产业投资弹性最大的一个;固定资产投资的弹性系数最小,说明资金投入仍是中国二三产业发展最稀缺的资源;固定资产投资、从业人员数量和土地投入对1996—2003年二三产业发展的贡献率分别为16.15%、21.51%和14.79%。同时,(α+βγ)=1.081≈1,说明土地作为基本的投入要素目前难以被资金和劳动力要素有效替代。在资金和劳动力两个要素中,劳动力要素的弹性系数远远大于资金要素的弹性系数,说明,如果一定要以其他要素替代土地要素,以劳动力要素最经济。The purpose of the paper is to explore quantitative methods to evaluate the contribution rate of land to the secondary ＆ service industry growth in China. Method of Cobb-Dauglas model was employed. The results indicate that there is a significant positive relationship between total outputs of secondary ＆ service industry and fixed capital investment in secondary ＆ service industry, employed number in secondary ＆ service industry and built-up areas （F = 249.511〉 F（0.01）（4.3） , R=0.998〉R （0.01） （4,3））. The regression coefficients of the three mentioned elements are 0.127, 0.995 and 1.038 respectively. It implies that a increment of 1 percent of land input would lead to a 1.038 % increment in total outputs of secondary ＆ service industry. The minimum elastic coefficient of 0.127 means that capital investment is the scarcest resource among the mentioned three elements. The contribution rates of the mentioned three elements are 16.15%,21.51% and 14.79% respectively from 1996 -- 2003. Furthermore, the ratio of 1.081 between to indicates that it is somehow difficult to substitute land using capital and labor input. As the elastic coefficient of employed number is far larger than that of capital input, it suggests that it is relatively economic to substitute land by labor than that of capital.

关 键 词：土地管理 土地 第二三产业 贡献率 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]