试用贝叶斯法估计非脊髓灰质炎急性弛缓性麻痹标准化发病比  

Standard Incidence Ratio for Non-polio Acute Flaccid Paralysis in Liang China:A Bayesian Method Study

作　　者：杨俊峰[1] 温宁[1] 梁晓峰[1] 崔钢[2] 于竞进[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心,100050 [2]卫生部疾病控制司

出　　处：《中国卫生统计》2007年第1期16-18,共3页Chinese Journal of Health Statistics

摘　　要：目的利用贝叶斯法对中国各地区的非脊灰急性弛缓性麻痹标准化发病比进行估测,并与普通法进行比较。方法利用2003年全国急性弛缓性麻痹监测系统报告资料和人口资料,计算非脊灰急性弛缓性麻痹标准化发病比及其贝叶斯推测值。结果贝叶斯法计算结果可以减少人口规模小的地区的推测值的离散程度,使结果更加稳定。结论贝叶斯法计算结果可以减少人口规模小的地区的推测值的离散程度,使结果更加稳定。To compare the standard incidence ratio （SIR） of non-polio acute flaccid paralysis using common method and Bayesian method. Methods A common method and a Bayesian method was used to compute the SIR. The ratio, the error ratio, the standard deviation, and the map by prefecture of SIR of by the two methods was corn- pared. Results Acute Flaccid paralysis SIR and error calculated by Bayesian method are lower. Conclusion. The Bayesian method shows a more stable result, especially when the population size is small, than the common method.

关 键 词：标准化发病比 贝叶斯 非脊灰急性弛缓性麻痹 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]