流域洪涝预报研究  

Forecasting of Floods and Waterlogging over a River Drainage Area

作　　者：单九生[1] 尹洁[1] 陈建萍[1] 刘献耀[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西省气象台,南昌330046

出　　处：《气象科技》2007年第3期317-321,共5页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：国家科技部2005年度社会公益专项项目(2005DIB2J102)资助

摘　　要：提出了一个应用水文上降水产生流量过程线的变化原理,仅用降水资料来推算流域洪涝指数,用量化指标来预报未来流域洪涝强度的研究思路和方法。利用流域内测站雨量计算出流域的有效综合面雨量(考虑了前一段时间内的逐日流域面雨量的不同贡献)。复核流量(或水位)等洪涝有关资料与流域有效综合面雨量的关系,最终确定出各级洪涝指数的流域有效综合面雨量的大小。在实际预报业务中,利用流域的实况面雨量和预报面雨量计算出未来流域某日的有效综合面雨量,对其值与已确定的各级洪涝指数的有效综合面雨量大小进行比较分析,最终判断未来流域可能出现的洪涝等级和强度。The hydrological principles of applying the flow hydrograph produced by precipitation are introduced, and a flood and waterlogging index calculated only with precipitation data and a quantitative method for forecasting the flood and waterlogging intensity over a river drainage area are presented. The method uses the conventional precipitation data to calculate the effective integrated areal rainfall in the valley （considering different contributions of successive areal rainfall days in the valley during the former period）. Through checking the rela- tionship between flood and waterlogging data （such as precipitation, water level, etc. ） and the effective integrated areal rainfall, the magnitude of the effective integrated areal rainfall for various levels of flood and waterlogging index in the valley can be determined. In the operational forecasting, the actual and forecasted areal rainfall are used to determine the effective integrated areal rainfall for a certain future day, and then by comparing it with the given effective integrated areal rainfall corresponding to the flood and waterlogging indexes of various levels, the level and intensity of flood and waterlogging can be estimated.

关 键 词：洪涝预报 河水流量 有效综合面雨量 洪涝指数 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]