用不确定度指数实时评价模式预报场业务性能  

Real-Time Performance Evaluation of Numerical Weather Prediction Models Using Uncertainty Index

作　　者：冯业荣[1] 张东[2] 梁巧倩[2] 程正泉[2] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学大气科学系,广州510275 [2]广东省气象台,广州510080

出　　处：《气象科技》2007年第3期322-326,共5页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：广东省科技计划重点引导项目(2005B32601008)资助

摘　　要：引入不确定度概念,结合“马赛克化”方法,定义不确定度指数和不稳定度指数,开发了实时业务系统,对ECMWF、JMA和T213的数值预报场进行了实时的性能评价;通过一段时间的资料统计,对3个模式的总体性能进行了对比。结果显示,该方法可为实时评价数值预报产品的性能提供一种客观依据,为预报员在日常预报工作中对数值预报模式性能的了解和科学选用数值预报产品提供科学定量的参考。An uncertainty index （from the uncertainty in measurement, proposed by the International Organization for Standardization） and the instability index （a derived index） are defined to evaluate the forecast performance of Numerical Weather Prediction （NWP） models. The uncertainty index is defined by comparing two mosaicked model fields with same meteorological variables from analysis and prediction, respectively. An operational system based on the two indexes is developed to evaluate the prediction performance for three operational NWP models （ECMWF, JMA and T213） in real time. Results from the operational application of these indexes show that these models can provide objective criteria for forecasters to evaluate NWP models, and be helpful for better use of NWP products.

关 键 词：不确定度指数 不稳定度指数 马赛克化 预报性能 数值模式 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]