我国房地产市场供求的非均衡分析——基于1987～2005年数据的实证研究  

The Disequilibrium Analysis with Supply and Demand of Real Estate Market in China: Research Based on Data from Year 1987 to 2005

作　　者：刘芳[1] 郭颖[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海电机学院经济管理学院,上海200245

出　　处：《上海电机学院学报》2007年第2期142-146,共5页Journal of Shanghai Dianji University

基　　金：上海高校选拔培养优秀青年教师科研专项基金项目(29-024-2)

摘　　要：以房地产市场供求的非均衡问题为中心,采用协整分析法确定非均衡计量经济模型参数估计迭代的初始值,运用非均衡计量经济模型对我国房地产市场供求总量进行了分析,从定量的角度对房地产市场的非均衡问题进行了研究。研究表明,房地产价格、国民经济发展水平、城市化水平、经济政策、生产投入等因素在不同程度上影响房地产市场的供求,而且我国房地产市场有效程度不够。The equilibrium between supply and demand of real estate market, which stands for the general balance of national economy, is an important goal of the massive regulation and control of the government. This paper uses co-integration method to determine the starting value of estimation iteration, works on the total quantity of supply and demand by applying disequilibrium econometric model. It discusses the disequilibrium problem of real estate market from the quantitative aspect. The result shows that there are many factors affecting the supply and demand of real estate to different degrees, such as the price of real erstate, the development level of national economy, urbanization, economic policy, production investment. And the efficiency of the real estate market is inadequate.

关 键 词：房地产市场 非均衡计量经济模型 协整分析 市场聚合方程 

分 类 号：F293.35[经济管理—国民经济]