AE指数非线性预报的探讨  

Approach to nonlimear prediction of AE index

作　　者：周荣茂[1] 高玉芬[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家地震局地球物理研究所

出　　处：《地震地磁观测与研究》1997年第2期45-52,共8页Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金

摘　　要：本文运用径向基函数法和邻点加权拟合法构造预测模型，利用ＡＥ指数对地磁活动的非线性预测的可能性进行了探讨。结果表明：虽然邻点加权拟合法对某些时间段的预报取得了可以接受的结果，似乎优于径向基函数法，但从总的实验结果看，预报效果不佳，这可能与资料和方法均有关系。In this paper , the possibility of the nonlinear prediction for geomagnetic activity by using AE index is approached with the method of radial basis function and weighted average of neighboring points. The results indicate that prediction of some periods with weighted average method is acceptable , weighted average predictor seems to be superior to radial basis function predictor, But the prediction effect is not good as viewed from all experimental results. It may be influenced by the drawback in data itself and the methods.

关 键 词：地震预报 AE指标 非线性预报 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]