最优组合模型在凹叶厚朴树皮产量预测中的应用研究  

Building of the Optimal Combination Model and Its Application to the Prediction of Magnolia Officinalis Bark Yield

作　　者：刘素青[1] 李际平[2] 周元满[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东海洋大学农学院,广东湛江524088 [2]中南林业科技大学,湖南长沙412100

出　　处：《江西农业大学学报》2007年第3期393-397,共5页Acta Agriculturae Universitatis Jiangxiensis

基　　金：湖南省教育厅重点课题资助(05A027)

摘　　要：提出无约束最优组合模型和有约束最优组合模型,这两种模型均可以极大地改善凹叶厚朴树皮产量预测效果。在这两种模型中,其中约束模型的残差平方和为64.251 7,无约束模型的残差平方为0,无约束模型远远优于有约束模型。在模型应用中,提出了这两种模型效率和预测效果的检验方法。两种模型的效率显著提高,显著性水平均在0.01以上。This paper deals with the building of the optimal combination models, i. e. the restriction model and the restriction - free model. The residual error of the restriction model is 64. 252 7 and that of the restriction - free model is 0. 000 0. The restriction model excels the restriction - free model in predicting the bark yield of magnolia of offieinalis. The predicting efficiency and its testing method in their application are put forward. The efficiency of the models is over 0.01 on average.

关 键 词：最优组合模型 预测 树皮产量 凹叶厚朴 

分 类 号：O141.4[理学—数学]