发动机企业生产过程中能耗组合预测模型及应用  

A Combined Forecast Model of Energy Consuming of Production Process in the Engine Enterprise and its Application

作　　者：张华美[1] 鄂加强[1] 彭亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学机械与汽车工程学院,湖南长沙410082

出　　处：《工业加热》2007年第3期1-3,共3页Industrial Heating

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(60375001)

摘　　要：基于已有的发动机企业生产过程中能耗,结合现代预测理论技术,提出一种指数回归-灰色理论-指数平滑相结合的组合预测模型来进行发动机企业生产过程中的能源消耗量预测。实际预测结果表明,这一能源组合预测模型具有较高的精度,对于提高发动机企业煤气消耗预测的水平,企业的生产计划管理和建设规划以及企业的经济效益和社会效益,有着重要的实际意义和广泛的应用前景。Based on the data of energy consuming of production process in the engine enterprise and some new forecasting techniques, a combined forecasting model of index regression and grey theory and index smoothing were established. The forecasting results reveal that the precision of the combined forecasting model for the energy consuming is high. It is useful to enhance the level of forecasting the energy con-suming, the production management and construction programming and the social performance of economic performance of the engine en-terprise, hence, it has important and actual meaning and comprehensive applied prospect.

关 键 词：能耗 灰色系统 指数回归 指数平滑 组合预测 

分 类 号：TK012[动力工程及工程热物理]