舆论涌现模型研究  

Study on the Consensus Emergency Model

作　　者：刘常昱[1] 胡晓峰[1] 司光亚[1] 罗批[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防大学信息作战与指挥训练教研部,北京100091

出　　处：《复杂系统与复杂性科学》2007年第1期22-27,共6页Complex Systems and Complexity Science

基　　金：国家863高技术计划(2006AA012337);新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助(NCET-04-1000)

摘　　要：人际关系影响是舆论形成的重要因素。本文引入个体意见的不确定性以及个体间的信任因子,建立了个体间的不对称影响函数,以此为基础实现了一个舆论涌现的Agent仿真模型。对模型结果的分析说明:极端个体的态度和个体间的相互信任,是影响最终舆论涌现形态与涌现速度的重要因素。仿真结果与社会学研究中“统治的多数”和“心理反抗”现象相互印证,反映模型是合理有效的。An important factor which impact consensus formation is human＇ s relationship infuencement. In this paper, asymmetric personal relationship influencement functions between individuals are given by defining uncertainty of individual＇ s opinion and trust factor. Based on these definitions an agent simulation model of consensus emergency is realized. Analysis of this model lead to conclusions： attitudes of extremists and trust factors are important factors which impact consensus final emergency form and speed. Congruence of our simulation results and sociology theories such as ＂regnant majority＂ and ＂psychology resist＂ proves this Agent model is reasonable effective.

关 键 词：极端个体 不对称人际影响 信任因子 舆论涌现 

分 类 号：N94[自然科学总论—系统科学] E911[军事]