基于溢油模拟的船舶溢油污染风险评估  

Risk Analysis of Ship Oil Spill Based on Simulation Model

作　　者：施欣[1] 陈维皓[1] 赵文朋[1] 周舫震[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学交通运输学院,上海200135 [2]交通部上海海事局,上海200431

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2007年第13期3094-3100,共7页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：上海市基础研究重点项目(05JC14073)

摘　　要：以长江口海域的船舶溢油风险分析为研究对象,通过对已有的溢油模型的多次仿真模拟,观察常见油类在不同的环境条件和溢油状况下的漂移及扩散情况,总结出影响溢油油膜面积及运动轨迹的因素,在此基础上,对长江口船舶溢油高影响区域进行了识别。研究表明:基于溢油模型的船舶溢油风险分析是可行的;影响溢油油膜面积的重要因素是风况;潮流则是影响溢油运动轨迹的主要因素;长江口海域船舶溢油高影响区域为南北槽航道入海口门区域。Taking the estuary of Yangtze River as an example, the most important factors were identified to influence the trace and square of spilling oil by running the software and analyzing some related data. From the study, the above research approach is feasible and the most important factors influencing the square of spilling oil are wind situation; the factor influencing the trace is the sea trend, The entry area of the south and north waterway is highly affected.

关 键 词：船舶溢油 风险分析 溢油模拟 影响因素 

分 类 号：U491.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]