河北平原34年来气候变化趋势分析  

Analyzing the Climatic Changes in Hebei Plain over the Last 34 Years

作　　者：赵少华[1] 杨永辉[2] 邱国玉[1] 樊彤[2] 胡玉昆[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室北京师范大学资源学院,北京100875 [2]中国科学院遗传与发育生物学研究所农业资源研究中心河北省节水农业重点实验室,石家庄050021

出　　处：《资源科学》2007年第4期109-113,共5页Resources Science

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(编号:KZCX-SW-446)

摘　　要：基于河北平原49个气象台站的逐月气象资料，利用Hargreaves模型模拟分析了1966年-1999年共34年时间序列上河北平原的蒸散、降水和气温等气候变化。结果表明，在时间序列上的四季和年蒸散变化中，春季表现为上升趋势，其他季节和年蒸散则均呈下降趋势，其中夏季蒸散呈幂函数下降并达显著水平（P〈0．05），年蒸散也表现为幂函数下降趋势，34年间蒸散的平均下降速率为7．4mm／10年。降水的变化则表现为春冬季节上升，夏秋季节下降，年变化呈线性下降趋势，下降速率为16．67mm／10年。河北平原四季和年平均气温均呈现线性增加趋势，除夏季之外，其他季节均温和年均温的增高均达极显著水平（P〈0．01），年均温的增温速率为0．38℃／10年。降水的平均下降速率大于蒸散的平均下降速率，加上近年来平均气温的逐渐升高，表明34年来河北平原的气候趋向干旱化。Based on monthly meteorological data from 49 observatories in Hebei Plain, the climatic changes including evapotranspiration （ET）, precipitation and atmosphere temperature, during the period of 1966 - 1999, were analyzed. The results indicated that ET of spring season was rising in the seasonal and annual variation patterns of ET at temporal scale, but declining in other seasons and annual ET changes. And the decline in summer reached significant level （P 〈 0.05）, with an exponential function relation. The annual ET also showed a depressed tendency of exponential function, with an average decline rate of 0.74mm per year during the last 34 years. The precipitation in spring and winter showed a faint rising tendency while precipitation in summer and autumn seasons demonstrated declining tendency. Annual changes of precipitation presented a liner declining tendency, with a decline rate of 1.667mm per year. As far as average atmosphere temperature is concerned, seasonal and annual changes of temperature all showed a liner increasing trend, and reached highly significant level （P 〈 0.01 ）, except for summer season. The rising rate of annual average atmosphere temperature was 0.38℃ per 10 year. The average decline rate of precipitation was greater than the average decline rate of ET, with a trend of atmosphere temperature rising, which implied that climate in Hebei Plain have been changing towards arid climatic types.

关 键 词：降雨 蒸散 时间序列 趋势 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]