基于模糊层次分析法的年最大电力负荷预测  

Annual Peak Power Load Forecasting Based on Fuzzy AHP

作　　者：吴丹[1] 程浩忠[1] 奚珣[2] 夏夷[2] 沈晓岚[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学电子信息与电气工程学院,上海200030 [2]上海市电力公司市东供电公司,上海200122

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2007年第1期55-58,67,共5页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

基　　金：上海市重点科技攻关计划项目(041612012)

摘　　要：针对电力负荷预测特点和人的判断所特有的模糊性,为了提高负荷预测精度,提出了基于模糊层次分析法的电力系统年最大负荷组合预测模型。此模型引入三角模糊数的一些基本理论,采用三角模糊数表征专家判断信息以充分考虑专家判断的模糊性;采用层次分析法对专家判断结果进行处理以得到方案层各方案的最优权重。该负荷预测模型综合考虑了影响电力负荷的多种不确定因素,并在综合不同模型预测结果的过程中引入专家经验。实际算例后校验平均百分比误差为2.039%。这表明该方法能有效提高负荷预测精度。In view of the features of power load forecasting and the uncertainty of human＇s judgment, this paper build up a new combination annual peak load forecasting model based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process （AHP） to improve the forecasting accuracy. Triangular fuzzy number is introduced to the model for indicating the judgments of experts while the AHP is used for dealing with the judgments so as to obtain optimal weights of different forecasting schemes. The factors that can influence power load forecasting are taken into consideration in the proposed model while the experts＇ experiences are introduced for results combination. The accuracy of the method is proved by sample results since the average post-checking error is 2. 039%.

关 键 词：电力负荷预测 组合模型 三角模糊数 模糊层次分析法 电力系统 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]