近40年中国平均气候与极值气候变化的概述  

Changes in Mean Climate and Extreme Cliamte in China During the Last 40 Years

作　　者：钱维宏[1] 符娇兰[1] 张玮玮[1] 林祥[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学大气科学系,北京100871

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2007年第7期673-684,共12页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"东亚夏季风北缘活动带的年代际变率及其成因研究"(编号:40475032);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目"印度洋海气相互作用及其对亚洲季风异常的影响"(编号:2006CB403602)资助.

摘　　要：随着中国气象局对近50年来逐日气象观测资料的释放,人们从不同的角度对中国平均气候和极端气候的分布特征有了更多的了解。从目前研究的结果来看,这些认识需要有一个集成,即需要有一个总体的归纳和解释。通过中国近40年来的温度极值和降水极值事件的分析认识到全球增暖和区域环流异常决定着气候极值事件的分布格局。与全球增暖相联系的是:我国微量降水在空间上表现为一致的减少趋势,我国北方寒潮事件显著减少,冷夜和冷日的减少与暖夜和暖日的增多并存,以及极端强降水有增多的趋势。与东亚季风气流和西风带气流异常对应的我国有效降水在区域分布上发生了显著变化,东部季风区中的“北涝南旱”从1970年代末转型为“南涝北旱”,与华南的偏干一起形成了东部季风区降水从华南、长江到华北的“-、+、-”异常分布型,但华南在1991年出现了转湿的突变;东北和西北先后从1983年和1987年前后转为暖湿气候。极端温度和极端降水趋势的空间分布与平均温度和平均降水趋势的空间分布一致。This paper reviewed the changes in mean climate and extreme climate in China during the last 40 years based on the daily observational records of the recent 50 years, provided by China Meteorological Administration. Accompanying the global warming, decreasing trends observed from those events of light rain, cold surge, cold days, and cold nights, while increasing trends found from extreme strong rainfall, warm nights and warm days. Effective rainfall occupied regional anomalous distributions that were affected by westerly flow and monsoon flow. In the eastern monsoon region, transition of summer rainfall from below normal to above normal in the lower Yangtze River in 1979 was accompanied with dry trends in North China and South China. A new transition of summer rainfall from below normal to above normal in South China was observed in 1991 while other two transitions to wet climate occurred in 1983 over Northeast China and in 1987 over the Xinjiang region. Trend distributions of extreme temperature and extreme precipitation were good agreement with that of mean temperature and mean precipitation in China.

关 键 词：平均气候 极端气候 全球增暖 环流变化 集成分析 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]