浙江省永嘉县区域滑坡灾害人口易损性评价和伤亡风险预测  

Population Vulnerability Assessment on Regional Landslide Hazards and Casualty Risk Forecasting in Yongjia County,Zhejiang Province

作　　者：张桂荣[1] 殷坤龙[2] 陈丽霞[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院岩土工程研究所,南京210024 [2]中国地质大学工程学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《地质科技情报》2007年第4期70-75,共6页Geological Science and Technology Information

基　　金：浙江省科学技术厅重大科技攻关招标项目"浙江省突发性地质灾害预警预报系统及应用示范研究";教育部博士点基金资助项目"滑坡灾害风险预测研究"(20030491004)

摘　　要：区域滑坡灾害人口易损性及人口伤亡风险预测研究是区域滑坡灾害预警预报工作的一个重要环节,该研究对提高预警预报工作的针对性和有效性具有关键作用。在对浙江省永嘉县有关资料进行分析的基础上,从研究区人口年龄结构、居民对滑坡灾害风险的防范意识、政府对滑坡灾害的重视程度及滑坡灾害预警预报体系的完善程度4个方面评价了研究区人口易损性,并给出了计算人口易损性的公式,据此得到了永嘉县人口易损性分布图。根据永嘉县的实际情况,提出了耕地人口密度的概念。综合人口易损性分布图、人口密度分布图和滑坡灾害易发性预测图得到了研究区受威胁人口伤亡风险预测图,为当地政府职能部门实施滑坡灾害风险的控制和管理提供决策依据。Study of population vulnerability and risk forecasting of population casualty during landslide hazards is important for regional landslides warning, which provides key operation for improving pertinence and validity of landslides warning. Based on the analysis on correlative information of Yongjia County in Zhejiang Province, located in coastal southeast China, population vulnerability is evaluated from 4 aspects, including population composition by age, population risk consciousness to landslide hazards, local government＇s attention degree to landslide hazard and perfect degree of prediction and warning system for landslide hazards. When the formula of computing population vulnerability is given, the zonation map of population vulnerability of Yongjia County is obtained. Furthermore, the concept of population farmland density is brought according to reality of studied area, which conquers the disadvantage of computing population density by administration region in mountainous areas. Risk forecasting map of threatened population is obtained by overlaying zonation map of population vulnerability with population density map and hazard zonation map of landslide hazard, which will present decision-making support for local government.

关 键 词：滑坡灾害 人口易损性 风险预测 防灾减灾 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]