甘肃省春末夏初干旱与亚欧前期环流的关系  

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE DROUGHT IN GANSU PROVINCE IN LATE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER AND CIRCULATIONS OF ANTECEDENT PERIOD OVER EURASIAN AREA

作　　者：杨善恭[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州中心气象台

出　　处：《高原气象》1990年第4期443-446,共4页Plateau Meteorology

摘　　要：春末夏初少雨是青藏高原东侧天气气候的一种重要现象。它对高原东侧广大地区的农业影响很大。此时正值春麦拔节到乳熟的需水关键期,因此降水的多少决定着产量的高低。根据文献[1]的分析,甘肃中部5—6月的降水量与定西地区夏田单产的相关系数为0.478,信度为0.05。我们曾计算过古浪县5—6月降水量与春小麦产量之间的相关系数为0.668,信度高达0.001。这些说明产量在很大程度上取决于降水的多少,因此春末夏初降水的预报,一向是我省广大台站的重要课题。本文介绍了我们近年业务预报方法的建立和应用。Using the multi-yearly mean data of 500 hPa height and their departure from the normal during the period of from May to June of 1951-1988 and the departure data of 6 representative station temperature and 14 representative station rainfall in Gansu Province at the same period, the intercomparisons of antecedent period circulations on 500 hPa for 5 typical drought and wet years in Gansu Province in late spring and early summer were firstly made. Based on the intercomparisons, the multi-regression equations for rainfall anomaly forecast were found. The trial forecast in late spring and early summer in 1989 show the rainfall anomaly forecast skill is quite good.

关 键 词：干旱 环流 回归方程 降水量 预报 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]