长沙市两种空气质量预报方法检验对比  

COMPARISON OF TWO AIR QUALITY FORECASTING METHODS FOR THE CITY OF CHANGSHA

作　　者：喻雨知[1] 王体健[1] 肖波 李伟 匡方毅 

机构地区：[1]南京大学大气科学系,江苏南京210093 [2]湖南省长沙市气象局,湖南长沙410205 [3]湖南省气象局,湖南长沙410007

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2007年第4期509-513,共5页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：中国气象局十五一体化研究项目

摘　　要：为探索新的空气质量预报方法,提高预报准确率,采用统计和对比方法,分析了长沙市空气质量现状,介绍了天气形势相似及动态逐步回归两种空气质量统计预报方法,并对其一年多的运行结果进行了检验和对比。结果表明,长沙市空气污染主要由PM10和SO2浓度超标引起,且具有明显的空间分布特征;5年来长沙城市空气质量明显好转;两种预报方法对各污染物都有一定的预报能力,预报的误差绝对值多集中在30以内,而级别误差基本上在1级以内。两种方法对NO2的预报准确率均在98%左右,预报效果优良。绝对误差对比发现,两种预报方法对SO2的预报明显优于PM10预报;级别准确率对比时,两种预报方法对3种污染物的预报准确率相近。两种预报方法对3个污染因子的预报准确率呈现出NO2优于SO2优于PM10的趋势。On the basis of air quality research for the last five years in the city of Changsha,two air quality statistical forecasting methods were presented in details in this paper,and verification of the two methods was conducted for more than one year. It was revealed that air pollution in Changsha was mainly caused by PM10 and SO2,which exceeded the official permission value. The air pollution showed some degree of spatial distribution. However,changes in the air quality showed a trend towards a better situation over the last five years. The two methods can be used to determinate the forecasting ability for various contaminations. The results showed that the two methods have an accuracy of about 98% for the forecast of NO2 ;the methods have an obvious effect than the PM10 forecast for the forecast of SO2 ;and the two methods have similar forecasting results for the three kinds of contaminations. It was indicated that for the two air quality forecasting methods,the forecasting accuracy of NO2 is superior to that of SO2 ,and the forecasting accuracy of SO2 is superior to that of PM10.

关 键 词：空气质量 预报方法 天气形势相似 逐步回归 

分 类 号：X823[环境科学与工程—环境工程]