人民币一篮子货币最优权重模型的构建  

作　　者：宿玉海[1] 于海燕[2] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学 [2]山东财政学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2007年第7期50-58,共9页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学基金项目"盯住一篮子货币汇率制度研究"(编号:05JA790045)的资助。

摘　　要：本文以贸易差额的稳定作为人民币一篮子货币最优权重选择的政策目标,构建了人民币一篮子货币最优权重确定的模型,估算了人民币一篮子货币的最优权重,并将不同汇率形成机制下人民币对美元汇率波动的幅度进行了比较,从而验证了自汇改以来人民币所参照的一篮子货币基本上是比较弱的参考。因此,我国央行应继续提高“一篮子货币”在人民币汇率形成机制中的地位,使人民币汇率的走势更能反映与一篮子货币的关系,以进一步完善人民币汇率形成机制。This paper has taken stabilizing balance of trade as policy goal and constructed models in which the optimal weights for Renminbi＇s basket of currencies is determined. It also estimated optimal weights for Renminbi＇s basket of currencies and compared fluctuation bands for Renminbi against US dollar under different exchange rate formation mechanisms, thus confirmed the fact that Renminbi has been have a quite weak reference to a basket of currencies since the reform of Renminbi＇s exchange rate system. Therefore, the PBOC should continue to enhance the status of currency basket in Renminbi＇s exchange rate formation mechanism, make Renminbi＇s exchange rate reflect the value of currency basket, and perfect Renminbi＇s exchange rate formation mechanism further.

关 键 词：人民币 一篮子货币 最优权重 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]