中国住宅市场结构与房价的关系  

An Empirical Study of the Real Estate Market Structure and Its Relation to the Level of Price in our Country

作　　者：邓宏乾[1] 陈峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学经济学院,430079

出　　处：《开放时代》2007年第4期62-71,共10页Open Times

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"我国房地产泡沫监测与市场调控机制研究"(项目批准号:70440001);国务院经济普查办公室课题"房地产投资规模;结构及效益研究"(项目批准号:JP63)的资助。

摘　　要：本文通过时间序列数据分析住宅产品价格体系之间的因果关系,利用截面数据建立多元计量模型量化住宅市场产品结构对房价的影响力度。实证研究表明我国住宅结构失衡是导致住宅市场价格上升的主要因素,当前的房价上涨实质为结构性泡沫。稳定或保持适度的住宅价格上涨,应采取增加经济适用房、普通住宅的供给;建立完善的住房保障体系;实施有区别的税收、信贷政策,完善住宅市场监管体系等措施。This paper analyzes casualty relation between residence products＇ price systems based on the time series data, calculates residence market products structure＇s diverse influence strength to housing price through building multi-linear regression model based on cross sectional data. The research results show that absurdity in residence structure pushed the housing price increase, and the housing price bubble is elementally structure bubble. In order to stabilize housing price, we should increase the supply of the economical and applicable house and the small-sized common housing, should build up a perfect housing assistance system, should guide and regulate the housing demand by means of the distinguishing tax and credit policy, should perfect residence market administration system etc.

关 键 词：住宅产品 市场结构 房价 中国 时间序列数据 住房保障体系 市场监管体系 住宅市场 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]