地壳形变观测与地震前兆一般性问题的讨论  

Some Problems on the Ground Deformation Measu-rements and Earthquake Precursors

作　　者：牛安福[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震台网中心,北京100036

出　　处：《国际地震动态》2007年第6期43-48,共6页Recent Developments in World Seismology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2006BAC01B02-02-01);地震联合基金(A07147)资助

摘　　要：从构造变形及破裂成核的角度来看,强地震前形变异常理应出现在地震震源附近,而许多连续形变观测事实与这种认识往往是相矛盾的。本文研究了攀枝花多次形变异常结束后10天内的首发中强地震与异常之间的相关性,发现西北地区2000—2005年5.9级以上地震震中(绝大多数作为异常后的首发地震)分布具有较好的规律性。本文揭示的事实对于认识形变观测与前兆本质、实验场区连续形变观测台网建设及物理预测方法探索等都提供了新的可能性。From the viewpoint of tectonic deformation and rupture nucleation, more anomalies of deformation should be found out near the source that easily accepted by many people, however, many measured data are not supported it. In this paper, the author explores the possible relation of deformation anomaly with distant earthquake,it has found out that 12 anomalies in strain or tilt observed at Panzhihua station appears 10 days before 13 earthquakes with magnitude more and equal to 5.9 occurred in North Western China during period from 2000 to 2005, and the epicentual distributions show a regular pattern. The revealed phenomenon gives us a new thought in recognizing the meanings of ground deformation and earthquake precursors, as well as in constructing the continuous monitoring networks in test site, and in exploring physical earthquake prediction.

关 键 词：地壳形变 地震前兆 远程相关 

分 类 号：P315.725[天文地球—地震学]