基于蒙特卡罗法的城市给水管网可靠性分析  

The reliability analysis of urban water distribution network based on Monte-Carlo method

作　　者：章征宝 余云进 徐得潜[2] 祝健[2] 

机构地区：[1]第二炮兵工程设计研究院,北京100011 [2]合肥工业大学土木建筑工程学院,合肥230009

出　　处：《给水排水》2007年第7期106-109,共4页Water & Wastewater Engineering

摘　　要：基于蒙特卡罗法对给水管网的可靠性进行了分析。提出了新的可靠度指标计算方法,对管网和各节点分别建立评价指标,并得出了定量的计算结果。通过对可靠性计算结果的分析,能有效识别出给水管网中的关键管段,模拟多管段同时处于故障状态的情况,可以作为给水管网可靠度优化设计的参考。The reliability of water distribution network is analyzed by Monte-Carlo method in this paper. Appropriate method and acceptable guideline for evaluating reliability are two primary issues of the research of the reliability of water distribution network. A new guideline for network and node is established and quantitative analyzed in this paper. The key pipe is easily identified by analyzing the result. The state that more than one pipe in failure can be simulated. It＇s hoped that the work in the text can help to optimized designing of reliability of water distribution network and develop the work of urban water supply system reliability analysis.

关 键 词：给水管网 可靠性 蒙特卡罗法 关键管段 仿真 

分 类 号：TU991.62[建筑科学—市政工程]