中国劳动力市场发育与就业变化  

Growth and Structural Changes in Employment in Transitional China

作　　者：蔡昉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所

出　　处：《经济研究》2007年第7期4-14,22,共12页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"未来5-10年我国就业形势和就业政策"(项目批准号06&ZD003)的阶段研究成果

摘　　要：本文通过梳理关于劳动力市场发育和就业状况的统计数据,并结合微观调查数据,对城乡就业增长和结构变化进行了描述,批评了传统的关于"就业零增长"、"农村剩余劳动力一成不变"等判断。本文提供了有关劳动力市场的指标,准确地反映了伴随着经济增长和改革开放的深入,劳动力市场发育水平的提高、就业总量增长和结构多元化、以及城镇就业压力的缓解和农村剩余劳动力大幅度减少的事实。此外,本文还通过对人口转变过程的阐释,预测了劳动力市场供求的变化趋势,做出刘易斯转折点即将到来的判断,并揭示了这个转折点对中国经济持续增长提出的挑战。By clarifying officially published statistics on labor market and employment combined with micro survey data, this paper tries to depict the employment growth and structural change in rural and urban China and to break the myths believed by domestic and international scholars such as ＂zero growth of employment＂ and ＂unchangeable rural surplus labor pool＂. The paper provides exact statistics about China＇s labor market that previous studies fail to do so, explaining how labor market develops, employment in both rural and urban areas increases and its structure diversifies, urban unemployment alleviates and number of rural surplus laborers reduces, as a result of economic growth, reform and opening-up. By examining demographic transition process in China, the paper also predicts the emerging trend of labor shortage, suggests a coming Lewisian turning point and reveals its policy implications to China＇s sustainable growth.

关 键 词：劳动力市场发育 就业增长 剩余劳动力 刘易斯转折点 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济]