中国产品对东盟出口竞争力的预测研究——基于可计算一般均衡模型的研究  

Forecasting Research on Export Competitiveness of Chinese Products to ASEAN——By Computable General Equilibrium Model

作　　者：赖明勇[1] 王堃羽[1] 祝树金[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《财经理论与实践》2007年第4期60-64,共5页The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(04AJL006);教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(05JC630072);商务部课题(2005D001)阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：随着中国-东盟自贸区的建立,中国-东盟贸易迅速发展,目前东盟已经成为我国一个非常重要的贸易伙伴。自贸区的建立势必影响到中国产品对东盟的出口竞争力。根据中国-东盟历年的显示性比较优势指数,并利用可计算一般均衡模型预测中国东盟未来贸易情形。并对中国产品对东盟的出口竞争力进行动态评估,研究结论表明中国-东盟自贸区的未来发展会提高我国大部分产品的出口竞争力,但对石化等部分产品有一定的负面影响。The construction of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area （CAFTA） will turn to be an important political factor in the bilateral trade, and exerts an influence on export competitiveness of each country to some extent. This paper starts with an analysis of export competitiveness of Chinese selected products to ASEAN from 1997 to 2005 by introducing Bilateral Revealed Comparative Advantage Index. It then forecasts export competitiveness of Chinese selected products over ASEAN in 2015 by computable general equilibrium model, and dynamic estimates the competitiveness of Chinese products to ASEAN. Comparing the result with the Competitiveness in 2005, it finally concludes that the construction of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area will contribute to improving export competitiveness of most Chinese products to ASEAN, while will be harmful to some products such as petrochemical products.

关 键 词：显示性比较优势指数 可计算一般均衡模型 中国-东盟自贸区 

分 类 号：F740.22[经济管理—国际贸易]