INFLUENCE FACTORS AND PREDICTION METHOD ON FLOOD/DROUGHT DURING THE ANNUALLY FIRST RAINY SEASON IN SOUTH CHINA  

作　　者：黄先香 炎利军 施能 

机构地区：[1]Guangzhou Institute of Tropical & Marine Meteorology, CMA [2]Foshan Meteorological Bureau, Guangdong 528000 China [3]Foshan Meteorological Bureau [4]Guangzhou Institute of Tropical & Marine Meteorology,CMA [5]Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster and Environmental Variation, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044 China

出　　处：《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》2007年第1期25-28,共4页热带气象学报（英文版）

基　　金：Natural Science Foundation of China (40275028);Research Fund for the Science of Tropicaland Marine Meteorology

摘　　要：By using the significance test of two-dimensional wind field anomalies and Monte Carlo simulation experiment scheme, the significance features of wind field anomalies are investigated in relation to flood/drought during the annually first rainy season in south China. Results show that westem Pacific subtropical high and wind anomalies over the northeast of Lake Baikal and central Indian Ocean are important factors. Wind anomalies over the northem India in January and the northwest Pacific in March may be strong prediction signals. Study also shows that rainfall in south China bears a close relation to the geopotential height filed over the northern Pacific in March.By using the significance test of two-dimensional wind field anomalies and Monte Carlo simulation experiment scheme, the significance features of wind field anomalies are investigated in relation to flood/drought during the annually first rainy season in south China. Results show that western Pacific subtropical high and wind anomalies over the northeast of Lake Baikal and central Indian Ocean are important factors. Wind anomalies over the northern India in January and the northwest Pacific in March may be strong prediction signals. Study also shows that rainfall in south China bears a close relation to the geopotential height filed over the northern Pacific in March.

关 键 词：statistical tests of wind fields flood/drought prediction methods 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]