50年来靖远县气候变化趋势分析  

Analysis on Climate Change Trend in Jingyuan County since Recent 50 Years

作　　者：杨义 张宝军[2] 丁贞玉[2] 赵鑫[2] 

机构地区：[1]甘肃省靖远县水务局,甘肃白银730600 [2]兰州大学资源环境学院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2007年第4期532-536,共5页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40302031)

摘　　要：根据靖远县气象站1951-2004年气温、降水观测资料,运用累积滤波器法和Kendall秩次相关法,对不同时间尺度的气温和降水量变化趋势进行分析。结果表明:靖远县年平均气温呈现显著升高趋势,降水量有微弱增加,但增加趋势很不明显;春季、秋季和冬季气温均呈增加趋势,冬季增温趋势显著,夏季气温有降低趋势;各个季节降水量变化趋势较为复杂,春季和夏季降水量呈微弱增加趋势,而秋季和冬季变化趋势相反;各时段气温和降水量也反映了同样的变化规律。In this paper, the change trends of air temperature and precipitation at different scales in Jingyuan County, Gansu Province, are analyzed using the cumulative filter method and the Kendall correlation method based on the air temperature and precipitation data observed by Jingyuan Meteorological Station during the period from 1951 to 2004. The results are as follows： （l） The annual air temperature in Jingyuan County is significantly increased, especially since the mid-1980s, and the annual precipitation, however, is slightly increased and even slightly decreased in some years; （2） Climate change is different from different seasons, the air temperature in spring, autumn and winter is in increasing trend, and the contribution of air temperature in winter to the annual air temperature increase is the highest, but the air temperature in summer is possibly decreased. The change trend of precipitation is complicated, the precipitation in spring and summer is slightly increased but decreased in autumn and winter, and the change trend of precipitation in all seasons is not so significant; （3） The change of air temperature and precipitation is related to the change of atmospheric circulation and the features of underlaying surface; the change of precipitation at large scale in northwest China is mainly affected by the East Asian trough, Ural trough （ridge）, West Pacific subtropic high and Indian Byland trough （ridge）, and the change of air temperature is related to the change of the midand high-latitudinal and longitudinal atmospheric circulation over Eurasia.

关 键 词：气候变化 累积滤波器 Kendall秩次相关法 靖远 甘肃 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]