中国城市体系演化的实证研究  

Evidence-based Research on Evolution of Urban System in China

作　　者：陈良文[1] 杨开忠[1] 吴姣 

机构地区：[1]北京大学政府管理学院,博士生100871 [2]中国日报社新闻中心,100029

出　　处：《江苏社会科学》2007年第1期81-88,共8页Jiangsu Social Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目"我国区域城镇化管理的系统研究"(项目资助号:70433002)

摘　　要：对新中国成立以来特别是改革开放以来我国城市体系的演化过程进行了实证分析,发现1949年以来我国城市数量和城市平均规模都处于明显的上升过程。改革开放以来,我国城市首位度以及城市规模对数对城市位序对数的回归系数总体上趋于降低,说明我国城市体系并不符合Zipf法则,同时也表明这一时期我国城市体系总体上呈扁平化发展趋势,但1996年以来这一趋势有所逆转。城市增长影响因素的分析结果显示,1990年以来大城市的增长速度要明显低于小城市,城市市场潜力、城市自然条件对城市增长速度有显著影响。By analyzing with evidence the evolution from 1978, we find that the average size as well as the of Chinese urban system from 1949, especially number of Chinese cities experiences consistent growth from 1949. Ever since 1978, the urban primacy index and the regression coefficient of city size logarithm on its rank logarithm have fallen as a whole, which shows that Chinese urban system does not fit the Zipf law. It also shows that Chinese urban system has a fiat - forming tendency of development, but the tendency has reversed ever since 1996. The analysis of city growth factors indicates that big cities are obviously growing slower than small cities, and that the market potential and city natural conditions markedly influence the growth rate of cities.

关 键 词：城市体系 城市规模 ZIPF法则 首位度 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济]