基于风险决策和保险定价的桥梁颤振风险评估  

Risk Assessment of Bridge Flutter Based on Risk Decision and Insurance Pricing

作　　者：周峥[1] 葛耀君[2] 文瑜 

机构地区：[1]重庆市设计院市政规划设计分院,重庆400015 [2]同济大学土木工程防灾国家重点实验室,上海200092

出　　处：《中国公路学报》2007年第4期58-64,共7页China Journal of Highway and Transport

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50278069)

摘　　要：为了评估因桥梁颤振带来的经济风险,提出了一种全新的桥梁颤振风险评估方法。该方法基于一种已有的4变量桥梁颤振可靠度模型,先采用Monte Carlo方法计算桥梁颤振的失效概率,然后用货币的形式定量地刻画桥梁颤振的风险,并引入效用理论进行风险决策。最后,运用该方法对上海颗珠山斜拉桥进行了颤振风险分析。结果表明:该方法简单实用,所得的结果可以作为桥梁投资和保险定价的依据。In order to assess the economic risk of bridge flutter, authors presented a new method of risk assessment analysis of bridge flutter. Firstly, based on an existed bridge flutter reliability model of four variables, bridge failure probability under flutter was calculated by Monte Carlo method. Then, the flutter risk was quantificationally described by means of money, and the utility theory was introduced into risk decision. Finally, this method was applied to the flutter risk assessment of Shanghai Kezhushan Cable-stayed Bridge, whose results could be used for decision making of bridge investment and insurance pricing.

关 键 词：桥梁工程 颤振 理论分析 风险评估 失效概率 桥梁投资 桥梁保险 

分 类 号：U447[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]