实际经济周期理论及其对中国的启发  

Real Business Cycle Theory and its Revelation to China

作　　者：黄赜琳[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学财经研究所,上海200433

出　　处：《经济问题》2007年第7期6-9,共4页On Economic Problems

基　　金：国家教育部人文社会科学青年项目(06JC790029);上海哲学社科一般项目(2006BJL005)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：基德兰德与普雷斯科特共同开创的实际经济周期理论(RBC理论)获得2004年诺贝尔经济学奖。RBC理论无论其理论本身还是思想方法都对传统理论提出了严峻的挑战,不但改变了宏观经济学的发展方向,也影响了一些国家宏观经济政策的制定。在从经济波动的根源、传导机制、理论模型、政策含义及其所采用的分析方法等方面概述了该理论的主要内容,并在总需求总供给模型框架下将RBC理论与其他宏观经济理论做出了相应比较,最后指出RBC理论在经济周期研究和制定稳定经济政策等方面对我国的启发。Kydland and Prescott win Nobel Prize 2004 in economic sciences since they have made fundamental contributions to the research area known as real business cycle theory （RBC theory）. Their work has not only transformed economic research, but has also profoundly influenced the development trend of macroeconomic and the practice of macroeconomic policy. This paper describes the main content of the theory in the cause, conductive mechanism, theory model, policy signification and research method of economic fluctuation. Then RBC theory is compared to other macroeconomic theory under the framework of ADAS model. In the end, RBC theory＇s revelations to China in business cycle research and stabilizing the development of economic policy are present.

关 键 词：基-普模型 RBC模型 经济波动 技术冲击 

分 类 号：F120[经济管理—世界经济]