基于模糊概率的水资源可再生能力评价方法  

Evaluation Method for Water Resources Renewal Capacity Based on Fuzzy Probability Theory

作　　者：刘章军[1] 叶燎原[2] 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学土木水电学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]云南大学,昆明650091

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2007年第7期1-5,共5页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(59869002)

摘　　要：以模糊概率理论为基础,建立了一种新的流域水资源可再生能力评价模型——模糊概率模型。在此评价模型中,提出了模糊权重的概念,可充分考虑权重的模糊性,避免了权重取值带来的不确定性。应用该模型对黄河流域9个行政分区的水资源可再生能力进行了综合评价,并与流域的实际情况进行了比较。结果表明,本评价方法具有较好的合理性与可靠性,可广泛适用于各种水资源综合评价问题。Based on the fuzzy probability theory, a new model for water resources renewal capacity evaluation is proposed, and the procedure for calculation is presented in detail. In order to overcome the uncertainty of the index weights of the water resources renewal capacity evaluation, the concept of fuzzy weighted value is proposed to take into consideration of the fuzzy of the index weights. The model is applied to assess the water resources renewal capacity of the 9 administrative regions along the Yellow River, and the result is compared with the actual conditions in the basin. It shows that the proposed method is more reasonable and reliable. Therefore, the method can be used in various water resources comprehensive evaluations.

关 键 词：水资源可再生能力 模糊概率 模糊权重 综合评价 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]