2006年汛期北京地区中尺度数值业务降水预报检验  

Evaluation of Operational Precipitation Forecasts in Beijing Area During the Flooding Season of 2006

作　　者：陈敏[1] 郑祚芳[1] 王迎春[1] 范水勇[1] 仲跻芹[1] 王在文[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局北京城市气象研究所,北京100089

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2007年第2期109-117,共9页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：北京科技新星计划(合同编号:2006A02);国家自然科学基金面上项目(项目批准号:40505020);北京市科委科技奥运专项"北京奥运会国际天气预报示范计划支持技术研究"(课题编号:Z0006279040191)共同资助

摘　　要：采用北京地区自动站逐小时观测降水资料对2006年汛期北京地区中尺度数值业务降水预报效果进行了客观检验,并针对2006年汛期的降水特点对模式的降水预报性能进行了初步的评估,着重对发生的28次降水过程按其主导的天气系统进行了分类,并对各个类型的降水预报进行了评分检验,根据检验结果分析了数值业务模式对于夏季不同天气系统导致的降水过程的预报能力,并且对不同分辨率的模式网格的预报性能进行了初步对比。In this paper, the operational numerical precipitation forecasts of BMB during the flooding season of 2006 were verified against the hourly accumulated precipitation from AWS observation data in Beijing area. The 28 precipitation incidents during the whole flooding season were identified into 6 categories according to their dominant synoptic weather systems. From their verification scores, the forecast capability of the operational numerical model of BMB for each precipitation category in Beijing area was analyzed. Moreover, a preliminary comparison of the precipitation forecast capability between different model resolutions was conducted.

关 键 词：降水检验 数值天气预报 客观检验 

分 类 号：P459.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P456.7