上海市建成国际化大都市的人口最大承载量研究  

Study on the Maximum Population Carrying Capacity of Shanghai Under the Target of Establishing A World Metropolitan

作　　者：徐辉[1] 穆昕[1] 王浣尘[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200052

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2007年第3期225-229,242,共6页Journal of Systems & Management

基　　金：上海市政府政策咨询研究资助项目(2004-Z-03-C)

摘　　要：运用系统科学中的可能-满意度法对上海建成国际化大都市战略目标下人口最大承载量进行了研究,建立了包含经济水平、社会生活、资源水平、生态环境和实力需求5个方面、12个条目、27个因素的系统模型预测模型。根据不同情况采用不同的因素并合规则,得到了2020年上海人口最大承载量的不同方案及其所依赖的条件,对制定相关的人口规划和政策具有一定的理论和现实意义。The possibility-satisfaction degree method of system engineering was used to investigate the maximum population carrying capacity of Shanghai under the target of establishing a world metropolitan. A forecasting model was established incorporating a number of factors in five aspects including economics, social living, level of resources, environments and strength requirement. Several schemes of the maximum population carrying capacity of Shanghai in 2020 and the conditions that the carrying capacity relies on as well as the key influential factors were derived, which has a certain degree of theoretical value and practical meaning to make the population policy.

关 键 词：可能-满意度 人口承载量 预测 

分 类 号：C923.1[社会学—人口学]