油水比预测模型及应用  

Present forecasting model with oil-water ratio and its application

作　　者：王锴[1] 赖枫鹏[2] 岑芳[2] 

机构地区：[1]长庆油田分公司第四采油厂,陕西靖边718500 [2]中国地质大学能源学院,北京100083

出　　处：《断块油气田》2007年第4期45-46,共2页Fault-Block Oil & Gas Field

摘　　要：油田进入开发后期,普遍存在产油量递减、油井出水量增加的现象,传统的预测模型并未针对油水比这一生产目标函数进行分析。文章以生产数据数理统计为基础,依据现代预测方法,提出4种利用油水产量比进行动态预测的数学模型。实例预测表明,提出的模型能够很好地实现历史数据的拟合,对开发方案的调整具有重要意义。Many oil fields in our country are at later stage of exploitation.The oil producing capacity is decreasing and the water production is increasing.Classical forecasting model couldn't meet the necessary of field work.Based on the mathematical statistics and in the light of present forecasting means,this paper proposes four kinds of mathematical models which use the oil-water ratio for performance forecasting.Combining mathematical models with example,these models can well achieve the history match of production data.It is very important for the adjustment of development plan.

关 键 词：油水比 预测模型 历史拟合 应用 

分 类 号：TE312[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]