基于可计算一般均衡模型的电力政策模拟  

Electric Policy Simulation Based on Computable General Equilibrium Model

作　　者：谭显东[1] 胡兆光[2] 李蒙[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学工商管理学院,北京市昌平区102206 [2]国网北京经济技术研究院,北京市宣武区100761

出　　处：《电网技术》2007年第15期55-60,共6页Power System Technology

摘　　要：电力政策模拟除了模拟自身的政策外,还包含模拟电力政策对另外行业的影响以及其它的政策对电力行业的影响,可计算一般均衡模型可凭借非线性方程组描述经济系统中各主体之间的供需联系,为电力政策模拟提供有力的方法和手段。文中介绍了一般均衡模型的主要方程模块,并从工业部门选出11个主要用电部门,描述了用于电力政策模拟的社会核算矩阵的结构。针对人民币升值的现状,利用2002年投入产出表设计了社会核算矩阵,在通用代数建模系统平台下构建了用于分析汇率变动对电力行业影响的一般均衡模型,具体分析了汇率下降1%和3%两种情景下各主要部门用电量的变化。Besides the simulation of electric power policy itself, electric power policy modeling simulates the impacts of electric power policy on other trades as well as the impact of the policies of other trades on electric power industry. On the strength of nonlinear equations, computable general equilibrium （CGE） describes the supplying and demanding relationship between the sectors offers a very useful method of economic system, so it for electric power policy simulation. In this paper, the principal equation modules of CGE are presented; on the basis of sorting out eleven electric power consumption sectors from industrial sectors, the structure of social accounting matrix （SAM） for electric power simulation is described; according to the present situation of RMB revaluation, by use of the input output table of the year of 2002 a SAM is designed; by use of general algebraic modeling system （GAMS）, a CGE model used to analyze the impact of change in exchange rate on electric power industry is constructed and the fluctuation of electric power consumption of these sorted out sectors is analyzed while the exchange rate of RMB is reduced by one percent and three percent respectively.

关 键 词：可计算一般均衡 电力政策模拟 社会核算矩阵 汇率 通用代数建模系统 

分 类 号：TM743[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]