辽宁省气候变化的分析及对地质灾害的影响  

Trend Analysis of Climate Change and Its Impact on Geological Disasters in Liaoning

作　　者：付建飞[1] 綦魏[1] 王恩德[1] 席晓凤[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北大学资源与土木工程学院,辽宁沈阳110004

出　　处：《东北大学学报（自然科学版）》2007年第8期1190-1193,共4页Journal of Northeastern University(Natural Science)

基　　金：教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20050145032)

摘　　要：利用辽宁省气象台站的资料,运用气候倾向率、趋势系数以及Yamamoto检测法分析了该区域的气候变化趋势;利用多元统计方法以及地统计方法重建不同时间序列上降水的空间分布格局,并探讨了这种变化对其他方面的可能影响.结果表明,辽宁省气候有暖干化趋势,暖化期主要体现在春冬两季,干旱期体现在夏冬两季;气温有突变,并主要表现在夏季;年均温度由西南向东北方向、年降水由东向西方向都有逐渐递减的趋势.气温和降水的趋势系数存在空间变异性,将可能导致区域内地质灾害发生的频率增加,强度加大.Utilizing the Liaoning Provincial Observatory＇ s statistics in combination with the climate tendency ratio, trend coefficient and Yamamoto＇s climate diagnosis, the trend of climate change in the province is predicted. The spatial pattern of rainfall in different time sequences is restructured using multi-component statistical method and geostatistical interpolation method, then the possible impact of relevant climate change on something else is discussed. The results show that the climate tends to warmer and drier in the province where the warming period may be mainly in spring and winter and the drying period in summer and fall. It is predicted that the temperature catastrophe is possible and it will mainly be in summer, and a gradually decreasing trend is found to both annual mean temperature and rainfall, i.e., the former will take place from southwest to northeast and the latter from east to west. The trend coefficients of the temperature and rainfall both present the spatial variability which may results in increasing the occurrences of geological disaster with increasing intensities in the province.

关 键 词：辽宁省 气候变化 地质灾害 地统计 Yamamoto检测 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]