基于信息扩散理论的吉林省草原火灾风险评价  

Risk assessment of grassland fire in Jilin Province based on information diffusion theory

作　　者：张继权[1] 刘兴朋[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学城市与环境科学学院东北师范大学自然灾害研究所,吉林长春130024

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2007年第4期590-594,共5页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关项目(2004BA528B-3-1)

摘　　要：草原火灾影响我国牧区多发的自然灾害之一,每年都发生相当多的草原火灾,对牧区造成不同程度的财产损失和人员伤亡。利用信息扩散理论和风险分析理论对吉林省草原火灾进行了风险分析,解决了草原火灾小样本资料限制的问题。计算出吉林省草原火灾三个指标每年在各个水平下的发生概率,并得出了吉林省每年草原火灾过火面积和经济损失的风险值。通过研究发现,吉林省草原火灾每年发生5～20次的草原火灾概率较大;过火面积1 200 hm2左右的风险值最大;草原火灾造成的经济损失在15万元的风险值最大。对防灾减灾和草地保险具有重要意义。As one of important nature disasters, the grassland disaster has deeply influenced the development of stockbreeding. Grassland fires occur frequently in many provinces of China and caused severe losses. It is of great importance to study grassland fires in the regions. On the basis of information diffusion and risk analyze theory and applying the historical grassland fire data from grassland fire fighting agency of Jilin Province, the paper calculated the probability that the grassland fire would occur at various risk level. With the various classified fire losses, the paper got the risk value of grassland fire in Jilin province according to the risk formula and solved the problem that the probability of grassland fires can not be calculated because of limitation of small-number historical data. As grassland fire disaster data are very few, the information diffusion theory is applied to deal with this problem. The results show that the probability of grassland fire occurring 5 ～ 20 times per year in Jilin Province, China is very high and the value is over 0.413 8 ; risk value of grassland fire burning over 1 200 hm^2 per year is the highest and the value is 513.96 ; the probability value of grassland fire losses under 0.1 million Yuan RMB per year is the high- est and the value is 0.5625 ; and the risk value of grassland losses reaching 0.15 million Yuan RMB per year is the highest and the value is 5. 997. The research results should have great significance to related local administrative departments for a strategic decision and grassland insurance.

关 键 词：草原火灾 风险 信息扩散 吉林省 

分 类 号：S812.6[农业科学—草业科学]